This Forecast is by the courtesy of Openskiron.org, and it uses a 1km model (WRF-1km)
Openskiron WRF-4km Forecast
Beit zida
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Diamond Beach
Hahursha
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J`ino
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Kfar Nahum wraf
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Ein Tabha (float)
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Migdal
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Hispin - Bne israel water-reserve
Windguru Forecast (only for approx.)
Locations of meters and Wrf-1 selected spots
Red = live wind meter, light-blue = WRF-1 Spot
How to read forecasts for diamond beach
1.look for a summer day with a South/West wind in the mediterranean sea. 2.In the morning check the openskiron WRF-1km and look for gusts over 20 knots. 3.Finally in 10:30 AM check for at least 4 degree difference between Zemah and Avnei Eitan (If you are using the website tempratures display: green color - over 4 deg, yellow color - less then 4 deg, white - data didnt updated for today) . in the picture you can sea a good temprature difference (station on the right and the bottom) 4. In addition, it is possible to wait for the uniform update of Tzemach and Avnei Eitan from the 10:30 measurement. This update usually happens around 10:45, and with the help of a statistical analysis by Ronen Zohar, we will obtain the probability of a two-hours of kitesurfing depending solely on the temperature.. 5.If all conditions are set so there is a good chance for wind in the diamond beach!
statistical table for wind at diamond by temprature difference Zenach Avnei eitan
Explanation of the Statistical Analysis for Two hours of surfing at the diamond
Statistical Research for Diamond by Ronen Zohar - During 3.5 months of reserve duty in endless shifts in the command center, I conducted statistical research on temperature differences at the Kinneret's meteorological stations at 10:30 AM and their impact on a reasonable surfing day at Diamond (reasonable = gust of 17.5 knots for two hours or more at the Beit Tsaida wind gauge). A total of 26 station pairs were examined (in the years 2021-2023), of which 4 pairs were examined in depth (in the years 2018-2022). Spoiler: the winner is the well-known Tzemach-Avnei Eitan pair, this time with statistical backing. The differences over 5 years (May to September) were presented in a graph and colored (according to the Beit Tsaida wind gauge) in green (reasonable day) or red (bad day). Various decision thresholds allowed for accurate calculation of the probability of surfing for two hours at Diamond (based on 5-year statistics):
A second-order approximate function created a continuous line representing the statistical accuracy and risk in the 10:30 AM decision whether to go to Diamond, and the result is displayed on the KDI website every day at 10:30 AM or when the meteorological data updates on the server around 10:50 AM.
Example: if the temperature difference is 5 degrees, the probability of surfing for two hours at Diamond based on past data is 80% and the probability of a bad day is 20%.
Important: Comparing the accuracy of the differences sampled at 10:30 AM versus 11:30 AM proves that it is better to sample at 10:30 AM rather than at 11:30 AM.